Energy Future – Realistic Perspectives

A high share of solar and wind energy makes electricity more expensive

In the debate about the future energy system, many claim that the massive expansion of solar and wind energy will lead to cheaper electricity. That may sound intuitively right – sunlight and wind are “free” resources. But behind this argument lies a dangerous illusion that does not stand up to scrutiny.

The problem of low efficiency

Solar and wind energy have low efficiency and deliver weather-dependent, unpredictable electricity. This requires building enormous capacity to meet demand when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. This leads to two major challenges:

• Surplus and scarcity:

  At times when sun and wind are abundant, we may have an energy surplus. But this does little to help at other times, when production falls to zero. A stable electricity supply requires constant access to energy, which weather-dependent sources alone cannot provide.

• Costly storage:

  Surplus energy has to be stored for later use with the help of batteries or hydrogen. This is technically feasible but extremely expensive, especially on the scale needed to balance today’s energy demand.

Risks of excessive dependence on renewable energy

Focusing almost exclusively on renewable energy while neglecting system costs and the challenges of maintaining stability could lead to a crisis far more devastating than adapting to the potential changes in weather and temperature suggested by the IPCC.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) itself stresses that adapting to the effects of climate change is often feasible with current technologies and resources. However, the socio-economic consequences of exploding energy costs, unreliable power grids and misguided investment could destabilise society, burden the economy and exacerbate inequalities far more.

If energy becomes unaffordable or unreliable, the consequences could include:

• Economic stagnation because of high operating costs for industry.
• Energy poverty disproportionately affecting vulnerable population groups.
• Political instability as public dissatisfaction grows.

In many ways, these risks could pose a more immediate and serious danger to society than gradual adaptation to climate impacts.

Renewables have a role to play – but we should be realistic

Renewable energy has a role to play in the short and long term. Nevertheless, we must beware of being seduced by uninformed politicians or skilful lobby organisations promising “cheap and fast” solutions. This is a dangerous departure from reality.

We have to face the facts and recognise the sheer scale of today’s dependence on fossil fuels – about 80% of the world’s primary energy comes from these sources. This cannot be replaced “cheaply and quickly” by renewables alone. Global coal consumption is reaching new records, driven by countries such as China and India.

Replacing 80% of global energy demand is not just a technological challenge but a massive social transformation requiring enormous resources and time. We can build millions of wind turbines, solar cells, batteries and hydrogen stores. But the idea that this will be fast, cheap and effective belongs in a utopia.

The triangle rule: fast, cheap or good

The old saying sums it up:

• What is fast and cheap is never good.
• What is fast and good is never cheap.
• What is cheap and good is never fast.

This principle applies directly to energy generation. We need realistic solutions, not just those that are popular on paper.

Nuclear energy part of the solution

Nuclear energy should be part of the solution to meeting global energy demand sustainably and reliably. This does not mean that advocates of nuclear energy insist on nuclear energy alone – most recognise the value of a symbiosis between renewables and nuclear power.

To achieve this, we must abandon outdated dogmas and unfounded fears of nuclear energy. Modern nuclear technology is safer, more efficient and capable of delivering stable energy that complements renewable sources. This is not an either-or decision; I see it as a necessity for meeting our great challenges.

Conclusion: a balancing act

We need a sustainable, stable and economically viable energy system. The belief that solar and wind energy alone can deliver this is naive and dangerous. Renewable energy sources play an important role, but nuclear power must be part of the solution – not as a competitor, but as a partner.

Neglecting this balance could lead to social risks far greater than the challenges of adapting to possible climate impacts. Let us approach the future with knowledge, not ideology. After all, it is our responsibility to ensure a secure and sustainable energy supply for future generations.

Terje Hauan, Technology Leader | Energy & Sustainability

Source: LinkedIn

Terje Hauan: Technology Leader | Energy & Sustainability Innovator | Driving the Green Transition

Results-driven executive with a 30+ year track record of accelerating innovation and growth in energy and technology. With an unique blend of technical depth, honored in the armed forces and oil & gas sectors and others.

LinkedIn profile