Power grid at its limit: a blackout foretold?

From stress in the power grid to BLACKOUT

What happens in a widespread power failure? No light, no communication, no infrastructure – everyday life collapses within seconds. Stefan Spiegelsperger (“Mr. Blackout”) shows why the expansion of millions of wind and solar installations destabilises the power grid. He warns of a real danger of blackout and sees the energy transition at its technical limit.

At the centre of the debate is a seemingly trivial physical quantity: 50 hertz. This grid frequency means that in every single second exactly as much electricity must be produced as is consumed at the same time. No annual average, no monthly balance – every second counts. If the frequency falls below 47.5 hertz or rises above 52 hertz, the emergency mechanism kicks in. In extreme cases, the grid collapses.

The German power system was built up over decades on the basis of large, rotating generators – coal, gas, nuclear and hydroelectric power plants. These machines bring considerable rotating mass with them. They stabilise the grid automatically by physically cushioning frequency fluctuations. Modern wind and solar installations, by contrast, feed in via inverters. They follow the frequency – they do not generate it. This removes an essential stability factor.

At the same time, the structure of power generation has changed radically. Instead of around 1,000 large power plants, there are now millions of decentralised generators. Every photovoltaic system, every wind turbine is a power plant of its own. Forecasts for wind and sun remain inaccurate despite improved models. Deviations of several gigawatts are not unusual. That corresponds to the output of entire countries.

The consequences can be seen in so-called redispatch measures – emergency interventions by grid operators. While only a few interventions per year were necessary around the year 2000, the numbers today are in the five-digit range. Power plants are ramped down or up at short notice to avoid overloads. These interventions cost billions and are financed through taxes and levies.

Two extreme phenomena aggravate the situation:

• “Bright breeze”: high solar or wind feed-in with low demand at the same time. Electricity prices become negative, installations have to be switched off.
• Dark doldrums (Dunkelflaute): hardly any wind and sun with high demand. Conventional reserve capacities become scarce.

In such situations, Germany is increasingly dependent on electricity imports. Neighbouring European countries in fact stabilise the system with their conventional power plants. But political tensions and their own bottlenecks mean that some countries are technically protecting their grids or rejecting new lines to Germany.

Another structural problem lies in grid expansion. Generating capacities are built within a few years, whereas new high-voltage lines often take a decade. The result: electricity is generated where it is not needed and is lacking where it is needed.

Open live balancing power

Technical solutions exist – such as rotating phase shifters, grid-forming inverters or storage technologies. But these require time, investment and clear system priorities. At the same time, pressure is growing to adapt industry and consumers more closely to the volatile supply of electricity. “Flexibility” is becoming the guiding term: production, consumption and even working hours are to be aligned with the availability of wind and sun.

The core question, however, remains a physical one: can a highly industrialised country base its power system primarily on weather-dependent, electronically coupled generators without sufficient rotating reserve and grid structure?

Developments so far show: interventions are increasing, complexity is rising, stability reserves are shrinking. A blackout is not a permanent state – but it is also no longer a purely theoretical scenario.

Conclusion Independence and freedom

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Energy is the foundation of every modern society. Without a stable power supply there is neither economic capacity to act nor personal security. Independence therefore means not only political sovereignty but also technical resilience. A resilient power system needs physical stability, sufficient reserve capacities and honest cost assessments. Freedom does not arise from ideology but from security of supply. Those who shape energy policy ultimately decide on the structural stability of society and the economy.