First automotive tipping point reached with electric mobility

Not a doom-laden message but reality: this is what the mobility transition means

On top of this come the agricultural and energy transitions, with utterly breathtaking, far-reaching changes in which the old structures are collapsing completely – but let us stay with e-mobility for now. The first automotive tipping point has been reached with electric mobility. What comes next?

Tipping point 1: electric driving

LINK TO THE BLOG – DerLetzteFührerscheinNeuling.com (German)

September 2020 will go down as the month in which it became clear even to the last denier that the transition to electric mobility and the death of petrol and diesel vehicles have become inevitable. The first of the three tipping points has been reached with the arrival of electric mobility. Even the biggest e-mobility sceptics have now understood this. But it does not end here: it was the prelude to the coming tipping points in autonomous and shared driving, and these will overturn the last pillars of the old car industry. So anyone who wants to take a closer look at the disruptions currently under way must focus on these two technologies and business models and act accordingly in order to stay ahead. And quickly. For already with electric mobility – not least because of COVID – the upheaval has accelerated.

… this year alone, German manufacturers and suppliers have announced job cuts of more than 100,000 positions:

• 30,000 Daimler
• 30,000 Conti
• 4,400 Schaeffler
• 15,000 ZF
• 9,500 MAN
• 6,000 BMW
• 1,850 Bosch
• 8,000 Mahle
• Insolvent: Moll, Finoba, Weberit Werke Dräbing

Total: 104,750 plus the insolvencies

… that Tesla has secured so many raw material resources that it could electrify the entire US fleet of 300 million cars. For years to come, Tesla has created such a dominant position in battery cells and such a price advantage that other manufacturers can only keep up in the same segments at a loss. At the same time, Musk has announced production capacities of 20–30 million cars a year by 2030, with more than a hundredfold battery production capacity. Since 2013, Tesla has managed to increase its vehicle production by around 50 per cent every year. No other car manufacturer has ever achieved this.

Tipping point 3: sharing

Sharing means a considerably reduced number of cars on the roads: instead of private vehicles, robotaxis drive around, and prices per kilometre driven fall drastically. Emotional attachment to cars, brand loyalty, brands, physical build quality and the like become less important, while digital luxury (German) will come to the fore. And so far the traditional manufacturers have had difficulty understanding what that even is.

Horror scenario for motorists

Over 1,500 euros more per year and car, 4 euros per litre of fuel, to reach the new 2030 climate targets.

Current, from the media (Kronen Zeitung, pages 6/7, Wed. 29 September 2020, Manfred Schumi)

The EU wants to tighten its climate targets; at the moment this is a proposal by the EU Commission, supported by Angela Merkel as holder of the Council presidency. From 2021 to 2030, households in Austria would have to bear a total burden of 49 billion to reach the climate targets. Austria would have to cut its CO2 emissions by 61% to meet the climate targets.

The Austrian automobile club ÖAMTC had calculations made: by 2030, spending per car and year would be 1,541 euros higher, a litre of fuel could cost 4 euros, mineral oil tax would rise in 2021 by 20 cents for petrol and 28 cents for diesel and increase every year in line with inflation, the basic rate of the engine-related insurance tax would be doubled, and from 2025 there would be road pricing for cars at 2.3 cents per kilometre. If the tax increases started later, they would have to be higher.

So everyone who lives fossil-free and no longer resists has a sunny future – and is already among the big winners today, with free energy from the sun for ever.

With sunny regards Wolfgang Löser