Sea surface temperature determines the CO2 content of the air

A new, just-published paper is good news for humanity

Dr. Peter F. Mayer, tkp.at (German)

Climate alarmism is scientifically untenable. All the billions of euros earmarked for large batteries, high-voltage lines, wind turbines and solar plants can now be redirected to health, raising living standards and eliminating poverty.

This result suggests that human efforts to curb CO2 emissions have been pointless, at least in the past.

The study by the Japanese researcher Dai Ato, entitled “Multivariate Analysis Rejects the Theory of Human-caused Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Increase: The Sea Surface Temperature Rules”, appeared in the Norwegian publication Science of Climate Change.

The theory that today’s global warming and climate change are caused by human CO2 emissions is wrong. Many studies and scientists have already demonstrated this by showing that a rise in ocean temperature precedes the increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

According to NASA and IEA data, the annual CO2 cycle in recent years has comprised 330 gigatonnes of CO2 from oceanic sources, 440 gigatonnes from terrestrial sources and 37 gigatonnes from human emissions. The CO2 emitted by all sources is used in photosynthesis and by the land and marine animals that benefit from it. In addition, a more recent study reported in particular on thermally induced CO2 emissions from soil respiration in tropical regions [Salby et al.].

The abstract briefly explains how the conclusions were reached:

”… In particular, the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) on the balance of CO2 emissions and absorption in the atmosphere and human use of fossil fuels have not been accurately compared so far. In this study, the effects of the individual factors were examined using multivariate analysis. Publicly available data from well-known climate research and energy organisations were used. A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out with the annual changes in atmospheric CO2 levels for each year as the target variable. The SST and human emissions for each year were the explanatory factors. After 1959, the model using NASA-derived SST best reproduced the annual CO2 increase (regression coefficient B = 2.406, P < 0.0002, model R² = 0.663, P < 7e-15). Human emissions, however, were not a determining factor in any of the regression models. Furthermore, the atmospheric CO2 concentration predicted after 1960 with the regression equation for the SST derived from the UK Hadley Centre showed an extremely high correlation with the actual CO2 concentration (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.9995, P < 3e-92). …

In summary, this study used multiple regression analysis for the first time to show that the independent determinant of the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is SST, which has strong predictive power. Human CO2 emissions, by contrast, played no role. This result shows that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere fluctuates as a natural phenomenon, independently of human activities.”

Extract from the study by Dai Ato

The study therefore concludes:

“Global SST has been the main factor in the annual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1959. No human influence was observed. This result suggests that human efforts to curb CO2 emissions have been pointless, at least in the past. Furthermore, the theory that today’s global warming and climate change are caused by human CO2 emissions is also wrong, which makes the story that today’s warming and climate change are more dramatic than in the past irrelevant.”

More on the topic (German)

• Neue wissenschaftliche Bestätigung: menschengemachtes CO2 unbedeutend für Klimawandel
• Neue Studie: Steigender CO2-Gehalt wird durch Erderwärmung verursacht und nicht umgekehrt
• CO2 Effekt auf Meerestemperatur nicht messbar – Studie
• Mehr CO2 kann nicht zu Erderwärmung führen – physikalische Studien

Original article on tkp.at (German)

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