GfKV: Global system break is reality

By Herbert Saurugg 11 May 2026

Why adaptation is decisive now

The current GfKV newsletter #21 paints a clear picture: the global system break is no longer a forecast for the future, but already reality. Even if the effects – especially in Europe – are not yet fully felt everywhere, the underlying dynamics are increasingly gathering pace. According to the analysis, six of seven central cascade vectors are active at the same time: energy, food, industry, finance, geopolitical conflicts and fiscal systems. These areas reinforce one another and create a dynamic that increasingly pushes classic linear forecasts to their limits.

The so-called Hormuz crisis is particularly formative. It marks not just a temporary disruption, but a structural transition: permanently higher energy prices, fragile supply chains and long-term shortages of essential goods such as food, industrial goods and semiconductors. Even if tensions ease in the short term, the systemic effects will persist for years.

The most likely scenario (currently rated at 55 %) does not describe an abrupt collapse, but a protracted stalemate: Europe is initially spared an acute systemic crisis, but is at the same time in the middle of an irreversible global transformation process. The first clear peak of the effects is expected from late summer to early autumn 2026, while the entire transition phase is estimated at five to ten years.

Concrete indicators underline this assessment: almost all global industrial supply chains are under strain, energy and logistics costs are rising significantly, and massive disruptions in agricultural production and growing food insecurity in parts of the world are already evident today.

Against this background, the newsletter formulates a clear logic of action that can be summarised in four central principles: acceptance, letting go, patience and cooperation.

Acceptance means recognising reality without glossing over it. This includes letting go of the expectation of a quick return to the “old normal”. Letting go refers to the need to question existing structures, processes and ways of thinking and, if necessary, abandon them if they no longer add value under the new conditions. Patience is necessary because the transformation will not be completed in the short term. Finally, cooperation becomes the decisive success factor in a highly networked and complex world.

This has concrete implications for politics, business and the population. Political decision-makers face the task of establishing realistic communication, prioritising energy security and addressing systemic risks in the financial sector at an early stage. Companies must reassess their supply chains, put resilience above efficiency and adapt their planning horizons to prolonged crisis dynamics. Individuals, in turn, are called upon to make personal provisions, redefine priorities and strengthen local networks.

A central message of the newsletter is the distinction between pessimism, naive optimism and constructive confidence. While the first two attitudes either paralyse or lead to passivity, confidence describes an active, reality-based attitude. It is not based on expecting rescue from outside, but on one’s own ability to act.

The well-known parable of the three frogs illustrates this approach: it is not the one who gives up or passively hopes who survives, but the one who acts despite adverse circumstances. Applied to the current situation, this means: adaptability and continuous action are decisive.

About the source:

The full newsletter of the Gesellschaft für Krisenvorsorge (Society for Crisis Preparedness) – issue #21 – with all detailed analyses can be viewed via this link (in German):

Read the full GfKV News #21

Germany crisis-ready