GfKV: Hormuz shock in three waves

By Herbert Saurugg 24 March 2026

Why the crisis affects far more than energy

In GfKV Newsletter #19, Marco Felsberger classifies the current crisis around the Strait of Hormuz as a far-reaching supply-chain and supply shock. At its core it is not only about oil but about a networked cascade that puts chemicals, aviation, healthcare, fertilisers, aluminium, semiconductors and food prices under pressure with a time lag. We summarise the extensive newsletter, which is of course linked in the original at the end.

Three waves of disruption

The article shows that the consequences of the crisis do not unfold all at once but in several waves.

First, price shocks and initial shortages hit kerosene and naphtha.
Then helium, fertiliser and aluminium come under pressure.
Only in a third wave do the disruptions reach semiconductors, industrial production and finally food prices.

It is precisely this time lag that makes the situation dangerous, because at first it still seems manageable, although the actual cascade is already under way.

The wrong focus on crude oil

A central point of the analysis is that public attention is focused too heavily on crude oil and the oil price. In fact, other substances with much shorter buffer times are considerably more critical. While crude oil is secured for a comparatively long time by strategic reserves, naphtha, helium or certain intermediate products can become scarce much faster. What matters is therefore not only the energy question but the vulnerability of entire value chains.

Why a ceasefire does not lead to normalisation

The article also makes clear that a possible end to military escalation does not automatically mean the end of the economic disruption. Security checks, insurance issues and the gradual resumption of commercial routes mean that the consequences can extend far beyond the actual conflict. This is exactly the strategic message of the text:

Companies, institutions and private households should not see the crisis as a short-term episode but as an occasion to prepare early for persistent shortages and price distortions.

About the source:

The full article by Marco Felsberger – published as part of the GfKV newsletter by Herbert Saurugg – explores these connections in depth and explains the foreseeable consequences in detail and in an understandable way.

Read the full newsletter

Germany crisis-ready