GfKV: Global system break: when systems tip over

By Herbert Saurugg 17 April 2026

GfKV: Global system break: when systems tip over

DACH region now particularly vulnerable

The current geopolitical situation marks more than just another crisis – it points to a structural upheaval. This article, written by one of our own authors, summarises key developments around the global system break and shows why the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) in particular faces profound challenges.

Key points for readers in a hurry

This newsletter is about the global system break, the fourth systemic world crisis, and its possible effects on the economy, supply and society.

It is based on the joint, comprehensive systemic analysis “GLOBAL SYSTEM BREAK: The fourth systemic crisis and its architecture” (German) by Velina Tchakarova (foraconsciousexperience.com), Marco Felsberger (resilience-engineers.com) and Herbert Saurugg (saurugg.net).

Starting point

Middle East crisis blocks the Strait of Hormuz (10–13 million barrels/day of oil missing, 20 % of LNG disrupted). Ceasefire fragile, normalisation July 2026 at the earliest. IEA: more serious than 1973/79/2022.

DACH risks

Export- and energy-dependent region (AT/CH landlocked, DE transit): energy, industry, logistics, health at risk. Simultaneous shortages lead to cascades.

Three waves of crisis

Price/logistics shock (now): rising costs, delays.
Shortage of intermediate products (April/May): helium, AdBlue, diesel.
Downstream effects (Q3 2026): crop failures, production stoppages.

Sector focus

Industry: chemicals/metals +30–50 % costs.
Agriculture: fertiliser shortages → 2026/27 harvest at risk.
Health: helium for MRI scanners scarce.

Recommendations

State: DACH/EU coordination, early-warning systems, test plans.
Companies: early-warning systems, analyse supply chains, build up reserves, diversify.
Population: personal preparedness, local networks.

Conclusion

Coordinated preparedness creates resilience. Early adaptation minimises damage.

Ten strategic early indicators	Purpose of observation: escalation / stabilisation
1. First escorted convoy through the Strait of Hormuz	2. Resumption of war-risk insurance
3. Oil export capacity via Hormuz > 13 million bpd	4. Export restrictions Fujairah (UAE)
5. Qatar LNG restart confirmed	6. Oil/LNG diversions
7. Fertiliser export controls extended	8. Sulphur (sulphuric acid)/nickel/cobalt supply
9. Attacks on desalination + rationing	10. Emergency packages and government measures

Why the DACH region is affected

As an export-oriented economic region dependent on energy imports, the DACH region is particularly vulnerable. Austria and Switzerland as landlocked countries and Germany with its transit dependencies share these vulnerabilities.

All three countries depend on functioning transit corridors, stable deliveries of intermediate products and reliable access to energy. This vulnerability shows above all in four areas:

energy supply
industry and intermediate inputs
logistics and transport
healthcare and critical infrastructure

On top of this comes a structural bloc-loyalty dimension: China absorbs up to 1.5 million bpd of Iranian crude and is establishing its own supply networks under military protection – as a NATO and EU region, DACH is part of the Western allocation regime with limited access to these flows.

The more of these areas come under pressure at the same time, the faster price problems can turn into availability problems.

Energy as a key risk

The situation on international energy markets remains tense. Even moderate additional disruptions can lead to significant price reactions, especially when they coincide with low stock levels, geopolitical uncertainty and restricted transport routes.

What is particularly relevant for all three countries is that natural gas, petroleum products and processed intermediate products depend heavily on international markets. If there are prolonged disruptions in the Middle East or on important sea routes, not only does the price level rise, but also the risk of delivery delays and allocations.

This becomes particularly problematic when several energy segments are affected at the same time, such as crude oil, LNG, naphtha or industrial gases. Then it is no longer just about costs, but about physical availability.

More precisely than a market crisis, this is an allocation crisis: export bans, rationing and political prioritisation replace price signals. The available buffer instruments – the IEA release of 400 million barrels and the US SPR with an average of 1.4 million bpd – have already been activated; the price nevertheless remains 35 % above pre-war levels.

Industry and intermediate products

Industry relies heavily on dependable supplies, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, metalworking, paper, mechanical engineering and parts of the basic materials industry. When energy prices rise and intermediate products become scarce, not only do margins deteriorate, but also the ability to produce and deliver.

The structure of dependencies is essential here: many industrial processes cannot be postponed at will. If a key raw material or intermediate product fails, this can quickly lead to production interruptions. This applies especially when stocks are low and replacement procurement is only possible with a delay.

The decisive development is therefore less a single price jump than the danger that several shortages occur at the same time and reinforce each other.

Healthcare and critical infrastructure

Healthcare also depends on international supply chains. This concerns not only medicines and medical technology products, but also technical components, spare parts and special gases such as helium, which is needed for certain applications in medical technology, among other things.

Especially in healthcare, it is crucial that shortages often do not become visible immediately but make themselves felt with a delay. When spare parts, consumables or technical components fail to arrive, public pressure often arises only when a substantial problem already exists.

It follows that critical infrastructures should not wait for official crisis reports to react, but should systematically monitor early indicators and be prepared for shortages as a precaution.

Key electrical components deserve particular attention: delivery times of 128–143 weeks for large transformers mean that current procurement disruptions will only become visible as infrastructure failures in 2027/28 – with direct consequences for the energy transition across the entire DACH region.

Dynamics of possible crisis scenarios

The current development is best described as a sequence of several waves (see also GfKV Newsletter #19):

Wave 1: price and logistics shock (since March 2026)

In this phase, energy and transport costs rise, while markets and companies initially still react with expectations and hedging. The consequences are mainly rising prices, uncertainty and first delivery delays.

Wave 2: physical shortage of intermediate products (from mid-April 2026)

If supply chains remain disrupted for longer, real shortages of individual intermediate products occur. Then it is no longer just about prices, but about availability, rationing and prioritisation.

Wave 3: visible downstream consequences (from Q3 2026 at the latest)

Only in a later phase do the consequences become more widely visible in production, trade, agriculture and public supply. By then the causes have often arisen weeks before.

This wave logic is important because public perception usually sets in late. Those who only react when shortages become visible have in many cases already lost the decisive lead time.

Possible sectoral consequences for the DACH region

The energy-intensive industries in all three countries (e.g. chemicals in DE/AT, pharmaceuticals in CH) are equally exposed.

Economy and industry

Costs for energy, transport and intermediate products can rise significantly. This increases the pressure on companies, especially in energy-intensive sectors and in export-dependent business models. Additional risks arise where stocks are low and supply chains are tightly scheduled.

Agriculture and food

Rising fertiliser prices, uncertain energy availability and possible weather extremes can increase agricultural production costs and weigh on yields. It becomes particularly critical when international market disruptions overlap with regional climate risks.

The central cascade path runs via sulphur: disrupted refinery processes in the Middle East reduce the production of sulphuric acid – a key input for phosphate fertiliser – which for agriculture in Germany and Austria leads beyond price risks to structural production risks for the 2026/27 harvest.

Health and infrastructure

Hospitals, care facilities and other critical systems need stable supply chains for energy, technology and consumables. Even moderate disruptions can lead to considerable organisational problems there if no buffers are available.

What needs to be done now

Those who only act when shortages are already visible are acting too late. In this situation, preparedness is much more effective than crisis response. Measures are therefore necessary at several levels. At the organisational level (companies, sectors, interest groups etc.), cross-organisational special response structures should now be quickly established and reserves and buffers built up in order to be able to react better, more specifically and earlier.

State and institutions

Coordination between the national, regional and EU levels (DE/AT) or bilateral coordination (CH). Early-warning systems via national networks (e.g. BBK in DE, BABS in CH).
Clear, honest and transparent safety communication to the public.
Expand early-warning systems for supply and energy disruptions.
Review strategic reserves and procurement options.
Update and test cross-sector crisis plans.

Companies

Prepare and set up a special response structure as an early-warning system.
Analyse critical intermediate products and supply chains.
Increase stock and contingency reserves.
Diversify suppliers.
Set priorities for core processes.
Reduce dependencies on individual transport modes or energy carriers.
Exchange with customers, suppliers, within the sector etc.

Population

Accept that turbulent times are coming and increase your own self-efficacy.
Strengthen general personal preparedness and household reserves.
Realistically assess and reduce dependencies in everyday life.
Build local networks and neighbourly help.

Conclusion

The DACH region is directly affected. Shared vulnerabilities require coordinated preparedness – from Vienna to Berlin to Bern. The decisive danger lies not in a single event, but in the overlapping of several stressors: energy, logistics, industry, agriculture and supply systems are under pressure at the same time.

A global system break refers to the simultaneous crossing of critical thresholds in several interconnected systems – with self-reinforcing feedback loops and irreversibility that go fundamentally beyond a temporary crisis.

Not every strain automatically leads to a system break. But when several shortages occur at the same time, the risk of cascade effects rises significantly. That is exactly why now is the time for preparedness, prioritisation and building resilience.

The most important difference in such a situation is not between crisis and no crisis, but between prepared and unprepared.

Those who engage with change early and adapt will be hit less hard by it. What we need now is for all actors to close ranks. Further polarisation would only aggravate the crisis and consume important resources that would then be missing elsewhere.

So let us keep working together to become crisis-ready! Raise the topic of preparedness in your private and professional environment too, and stay, like us, uncomfortable.

Kind regards Herbert Saurugg, Velina Tchakarova and Marco Felsberger