GfKV: The delayed crisis

By Herbert Saurugg 31 July 2026

Temporary stabilisation does not mean all-clear

The current newsletter no. 22 of the Gesellschaft für Krisenvorsorge (Society for Crisis Preparedness) looks at the question of why the expected effects of geopolitical and economic tensions have so far been less clearly visible than initially assumed.

Under the title “The delayed crisis”, Herbert Saurugg, Velina Tchakarova and Marco Felsberger analyse developments concerning global energy supply, logistics, strategic reserves and critical infrastructure. Their central thesis: the global system break has not been overcome, but merely delayed by reserves, diversions and short-term political and economic measures.

Many supply chains and energy systems initially proved more resilient than expected. However, this stability is partly based on the depletion of existing buffers: strategic oil reserves were used, stocks reduced, maintenance work postponed and alternative transport routes used more heavily. This bought time – but it has not created a lasting greater capacity to withstand stress.

At the same time, the newsletter points to the danger that several stresses could occur simultaneously and hit systems that are already weakened. Especially in highly networked structures, seemingly regional events can have far-reaching consequences for energy, mobility, industrial production, food and public services.

Topics at a glance

Geopolitical tensions and trade routes

Developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain a major factor of uncertainty for energy supply and world trade.
Refineries as a critical bottleneck

Not only the availability of crude oil, but especially its processing into diesel, petrol and kerosene is described as a possible bottleneck.
Dwindling strategic reserves

State and commercial reserves have contributed to stabilisation so far. As they are increasingly depleted, however, the room for manoeuvre in further crises shrinks.
Vulnerability of critical infrastructure

Sabotage, cyber attacks, drone incidents and disruptions to transport and energy infrastructure are increasingly seen as part of an extended European conflict zone.
Weather-related supply chain risks

Extreme weather, heatwaves, restricted navigability of rivers and temporary port closures can further impair supply chains that are already under strain.
Strategic raw materials

Using helium as an example, the newsletter shows how export restrictions on comparatively small quantities of raw materials can have considerable effects on medicine, semiconductor technology and industrial supply chains.
Preparedness and adaptability

As a consequence, the authors continue to recommend vigilance, reserves, early warning systems, cooperation and planning that takes into account not only individual disruptions but also possible cascade effects.

A systemic view of crisis preparedness

Particularly relevant is the point that visible easing should not automatically be equated with actual stability. Falling prices, functioning transport routes or temporarily lower demand can conceal structural weaknesses.

For households, municipalities and companies, this is no reason for exaggerated worry, but it is a reason to take a sober look at their own dependencies: which supply is particularly critical? Where are there no alternatives? Which reserves and local options for action exist?

In this context, crisis preparedness does not mean being able to foresee every development. Rather, it means remaining able to act even in the event of unexpected events. Decentralised structures, regional cooperation and a conscious approach to dependencies can make a significant contribution to this.

About the source:

GfKV newsletter no. 22 offers a detailed systemic assessment of current geopolitical, energy and logistics developments. Anyone wishing to follow the background, uncertainties and the resulting preparedness recommendations in detail will find the full analysis in the original newsletter (in German).

Read the full GfKV News #22

Germany crisis-ready