GfKV newsletter #07 – please prepare now!

We actually did not want to send out another newsletter before Christmas, as at this time of year there should only be good news.

In view of the current and worrying developments, however, we decided at short notice to send one with the following core message:

If you have not yet made sufficient provisions to get through crises for at least 14 days, please do so now!

That sounds very alarming, and it is. We did not take this lightly, and we hope our fears will not come true. However, there are several simultaneous developments that worry us:

1. The very rapid spread of the new Omicron variant (German), which could lead to a massive wave of illness and/or quarantine. This could interrupt supply chains and lead to serious supply shortages, up to and including the failure of vital infrastructure.
2. The upheaval on the electricity market (German): the (day-ahead) electricity price has increased tenfold compared with the previous year and fluctuates enormously. Prices are likely to rise even further. The reason: the forthcoming shutdown of three German nuclear power stations by 31 December 2021, which alone could supply half of Austria. On top of this comes the loss of an even larger amount of capacity due to the short-notice, unplanned shutdown of several French nuclear power stations (German) for safety reasons. Contrary to official assurances, challenging weeks and months are therefore likely to lie ahead for the operation of the European power grid.
3. European, and in particular German and Austrian, gas storage facilities (German) are currently below average despite the expected demand. There are already warnings that larger supply problems could occur in the course of the winter in electricity generation, but also more generally (in food production, heating etc.).
4. Because of a massive IT security vulnerability, a very rarely declared red alert level (German) is currently in force: the Log4Shell vulnerability is leading to an extremely critical threat situation that could escalate over the holidays.

Four points, then, which suggest that the situation is generally coming to a head. A dangerous polarisation of society, including threats of attacks by certain groups, or the unstable political situation with Russia could make matters even worse. In this context, supply logistics could be badly affected.

It is now more important than ever to ensure that we can supply ourselves.

This does not take much effort, but it creates an important safety buffer, as we have been recommending for years for the blackout scenario. A blackout is just one realistic scenario. Far-reaching supply interruptions – whatever their cause – would quickly push our society to its limits.

For some time we have been preparing a broad initiative with the food retail trade: “Mach mit! Österreich wird krisenfit!” (Join in! Austria is getting crisis-fit!) (German). It is to be continued in other areas. The most important step always starts with ourselves, in our surroundings, in our companies etc. Let us not wait any longer, but take concrete steps ourselves. Then hopefully enough others will follow.

If you are not yet able to supply yourself and your family with the bare essentials for at least 14 days, please do so in the next few days. We hope we have alarmed you unnecessarily. Even so, you are not doing anything unnecessary! In any case you are creating an important safety buffer for the future, just as with good household insurance.

Please also share this letter in your networks, companies or wherever. We can only overcome crises together.

You can find help (checklists) at gfkv.at/vorsorge (German) or saurugg.net/leitfaden (German).

Nevertheless, we wish you a merry Christmas, restful holidays and a happy New Year!

Kind regards and stay healthy! Herbert Saurugg, Gottfried Pausch and Franz Hein

Further articles and information (German)

Blackout preparedness

• Blackout – Wenn plötzlich nichts mehr geht – Interviews with Herbert Saurugg
• „Nach der Krise ist vor der Krise – hoffentlich lernen wir gerade genug” 4Gamechangers 2021 – expert panel with Herbert Saurugg
• Blackout – Kein Plan für den Notfall – a ServusTV documentary well worth watching.
• Alle wollen importieren, nur niemand sagt, woher der Strom dann wirklich kommen soll … (Everyone wants to import, but nobody says where the electricity is actually supposed to come from)
• Wie vorbereitet sind deutsche Großstädte auf einen Blackout? (How prepared are German cities for a blackout?) – sobering
• Günseck für ein drohendes „Blackout” gerüstet – a model example of successful blackout preparedness!
• Wasserstoff als Notfall-Vorsorge: Energiezellenprojekt in Schladming (Hydrogen as emergency provision: energy cell project in Schladming) – a very interesting project, which unfortunately is also delayed due to current supply chain problems.
• Mit der Energiewende in den Blackout? – an MDR documentary well worth watching, which also covers the energy cell system in detail.
• Kärnten: Gemeinden erhalten „Leuchttürme” (Carinthia: municipalities get “lighthouses”) – another important step towards making municipalities crisis-fit.

Power supply system

• Europa auf dem Weg in die Katastrophe (Europe on the road to disaster) – a systemic look by Herbert Saurugg at the negative developments in the European power supply system that can lead to a blackout.
• Bericht Bundesrechnungshof „Umsetzung der Energiewende im Hinblick auf die Versorgungssicherheit” (German Federal Audit Office report on the energy transition and security of supply) – very critical results and hair-raising answers by way of justification.
• Hürden bei der Energiewende (Hurdles in the energy transition) – infrastructure is the most underestimated part of the energy transition.
• Stromabkommen EU-Schweiz (EU–Switzerland electricity agreement) – a very problematic situation with the potential to escalate at the technical level.
• Das Schweizer Stromnetz ist völlig ungenügend gegen Cyberangriffe geschützt (The Swiss power grid is completely inadequately protected against cyber attacks) – often only the lowest security level is reached, which is very worrying.
• A New, Deadly Risk for Cities in Summer: Power Failures During Heat Waves
• To Protect Electricity Operations from Increasing Cyber Threats
• Gier frisst Hirn und kann in die Katastrophe führen! (Greed eats brains and can lead to disaster!) – an insider story on the incidents in Germany in June 2019.
• Das deutsche Stromnetz ist so zuverlässig wie nie – wirklich? (Is the German power grid really more reliable than ever?) – the SAIDI value is unsuitable for assessing system security!

Crises / preparedness

• „Wir haben den Umgang mit Katastrophen verlernt” (We have forgotten how to deal with disasters) – a recommended interview with disaster researcher Martin Voss
• „Die nächsten 20 Jahre werden leichter für Menschen, die Unsicherheit aushalten können” (The next 20 years will be easier for people who can tolerate uncertainty) – a very interesting reflection.
• Weitreichende Infrastrukturausfälle und Störungen (Far-reaching infrastructure failures and disruptions) – collection of current events.
• Cyber-Angriffe auf Kritische Infrastrukturen (Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure) – collection of current events.
• Lieferkettenprobleme und -ausfälle (Supply chain problems and failures) – collection of current events.
• The Colonial Pipeline Hack Is a New Extreme for Ransomware
• „Weniger ist mehr” fällt schwer (“Less is more” is hard) – why we find it so hard to let go.
• Frankreich laut Experten unzureichend auf Atomunfall vorbereitet (France inadequately prepared for a nuclear accident, experts say)
• Wen rette ich – und wenn ja, wie viele? (Whom do I save – and if so, how many?) – a highly recommended risk-ethics reflection on triage / corona
• ENISA: Annual Incident Reports Telecom Sector – evaluation of outages in the telecommunications sector

Kind regards and stay healthy! Herbert Saurugg, Gottfried Pausch and Franz Hein

For years I have been publishing extensive analyses of what happens in the event of a blackout on my website.

Since 2019 also in cooperation with GAIA: my newsletters are also published here for interested readers as they appear.

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